Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

Rubens 73'

12/8/2024

Serie A · Round 38Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atletico-MG42%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.02

Atletico-MG

1.28

Atletico Paranaense

1.02

Atletico-MG creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.32

creates per match

0.86

1.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.32

Atletico Paranaense

0.86

allows per match

Atletico-MG

1.18

Atletico Paranaense

1.24

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.38scores more

Atletico Paranaense+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

70%

Atletico-MG or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

58%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

72%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

37%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 30 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.32 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.86 + Atletico-MG defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

42%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

30%

Atletico-MG at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

Mycael

Atletico Paranaense · G

8.5

Match Events

-5'

24'

56'

62'

63'

Nikão← L. Godoy

66'

Thiago Heleno

73'

Rubens

75'

Alisson← Deyverson

75'

Lyanco← F. Vera

78'

Christian← Erick

79'

Fernando← L. Esquivel

82'

Igor Gomes← Rubens

87'

E. Vargas← Hulk

87'

Igor Rabello← R. Saravia

87'

João Cruz← Fernandinho

90+7'

Igor Gomes

90'

Everson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGAtletico

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots7

1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.39

5Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots7

7On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

444Total Passes262

383Accurate Passes191

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

1.62Goals Prevented1.62

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense

Atletico-MG beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 in Serie A on December 8, 2024.

Goals: Rubens (73').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense