Atletico-MG 2–1 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

Paulinho 87', 68'

Alex Santana 51'

5/23/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico-MG59%

×Draw23%

Atletico Paranaense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.86

Atletico-MG

1.78

Atletico Paranaense

0.86

Atletico-MG creates 107% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.93

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.93

Atletico Paranaense

0.84

allows per match

Atletico-MG

0.89

Atletico Paranaense

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

82%

Atletico-MG or Atletico Paranaense

77%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

41%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

34%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

83%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

53%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

26%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

58%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

21%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

77%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.93 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.84 + Atletico-MG defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

59%

level

23%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

18%

Atletico-MG at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Paulinho

Atletico-MG · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

5'

22'

39'

43'

46'

T. Cuello← Vitor Roque

51'

53'

63'

63'

63'

Patrick← Rubens

67'

Vitor Bueno← Christian

68'

Paulinho

70'

Pablo

82'

E. Vargas← C. Pavón

84'

Willian← Pablo

85'

Matheus Felipe← Pedro Henrique

86'

86'

87'

88'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGAtletico

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots5

8Corners0

5Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots5

7On Target3

2Off Target0

7Blocked2

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

582Total Passes235

488Accurate Passes123

84%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls8

4Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense

Atletico-MG beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 23, 2023.

Goals: Alex Santana (51'), Paulinho (68', 87').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (72%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense