Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Atletico Goianiense

Atletico Paranaense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Alix Vinicius 6'

6/8/2025

Serie B · Round 11Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Paranaense52%

×Draw24%

Atletico Goianiense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.06

Atletico Paranaense

1.70

Atletico Goianiense

1.06

Atletico Paranaense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

1.23

0.89

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.83

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.89

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.54scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

76%

Atletico Paranaense or Atletico Goianiense

76%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

28%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

24%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

69%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 7 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.83 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.23 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

52%

level

24%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

24%

Atletico Paranaense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Habraao

Atletico Paranaense · D

8.5

Match Events

6'

Alix Vinicius

15'

Felipinho

46'

Dudu Kogitzki← Felipinho

46'

Alan Kardec← Renan Peixoto

58'

A. Cruz← F. Martinez

61'

LéoGoal cancelled

63'

Alan Kardec

71'

Conrado← Kauan Rodrigues

71'

Caio Dantas← Sandro Lima

81'

Leozinho← Falcao

83'

Léo Medeiros

84'

Fernando← L. Esquivel

87'

Heron← Guilherme Romao

87'

Luizao← Marcelinho

90+7'

Bruno Zapelli

90+6'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAtletico

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots9

5Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots9

1On Target3

8Off Target3

7Blocked3

12Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

550Total Passes313

477Accurate Passes237

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1