Atletico Goianiense 3–0 Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

Adriano Martins 62'

Guilherme Romao 45'

Maranhao 15'

10/5/2025

Serie B · Round 30Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Goianiense44%

×Draw27%

Atletico Paranaense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.08

Atletico Goianiense

1.38

Atletico Paranaense

1.08

Atletico Goianiense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

1.25

0.91

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.60

Atletico Paranaense

1.25

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.91

Atletico Paranaense

1.15

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Atletico Paranaense+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

71%

Atletico Goianiense or Atletico Paranaense

73%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

60%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 16 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.60 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.25 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

44%

level

27%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

29%

Atletico Goianiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Adriano Martins

Atletico Goianiense · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Maranhao↳ F. Martinez

29'

MaranhãoCard upgrade

30'

Maranhão

40'

LéoCard upgrade

41'

45+3'

45'

46'

59'

Talisson← Robert Conceicao

60'

Giuliano← B. Zapelli

61'

Dudu Kogitzki← Patrick

62'

Adriano Martins↳ F. Martinez

69'

Renan Peixoto← K. Viveros

69'

K. Velasco← Luiz Fernando

72'

Paulo Vítor

76'

Valdir Junior← Jean Dias

77'

Rai Natalino← F. Martinez

85'

Castro← Kauan Rodrigues

85'

Kelvin← Yuri Alves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAtletico

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots14

2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.10

6Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target3

2Off Target6

4Blocked5

7Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

308Total Passes468

246Accurate Passes401

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

0Offsides3