Atletico Goianiense 1–2 Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

Luiz Fernando 47'

L. Di Yorio 78'

Julimar 50'

7/7/2024

Serie A · Round 15Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Atletico Goianiense41%

×Draw29%

Atletico Paranaense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.01

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

Atletico Paranaense

1.01

Atletico Goianiense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.29

Atletico Paranaense

0.93

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.08

Atletico Paranaense

1.17

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.20scores less

Atletico Paranaense+0.07on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

70%

Atletico Goianiense or Atletico Paranaense

71%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

58%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 11 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.29 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.93 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

41%

level

29%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

30%

Atletico Goianiense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Erick

Atletico Paranaense · M

7.5

Match Events

46'

Derek← E. Rodríguez

47'

Luiz Fernando

50'

Julimar↳ Pablo

63'

63'

65'

71'

73'

Derek FreitasCard upgrade

74'

Derek Freitas

75'

Fernandinho← B. Zapelli

76'

Lucas Esquivel

76'

L. Esquivel← Fernando

76'

L. Di Yorio← Pablo

78'

L. Di Yorio↳ Fernandinho

82'

Bruno Tubarão← Maguinho

82'

Roni← Rhaldney

83'

Y. González← Shaylon

83'

A. Cruz← Gabriel Baralhas

89'

L. Godoy← Madson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots17

0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.03

4Corners11

11Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots17

3On Target6

4Off Target5

5Blocked6

8Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

296Total Passes399

207Accurate Passes302

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.32Goals Prevented-0.32

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0