Atletico Paranaense 1–0 America Mineiro

Atletico Paranaense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America Mineiro

Joao Cruz 41'

11/23/2025

Serie B · Round 38Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico Paranaense44%

×Draw31%

America Mineiro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.79

Atletico Paranaense

1.13

America Mineiro

0.79

Atletico Paranaense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

0.78

0.79

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.21

America Mineiro

0.78

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.79

America Mineiro

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

74%

Atletico Paranaense or America Mineiro

69%

Draw or America Mineiro

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

18%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

31%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

11%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

55%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

19%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

63%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.21 + America Mineiro defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

America Mineiro attack 0.78 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

44%

level

31%

America Mineiro scores more

26%

Atletico Paranaense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Teran

Atletico Paranaense · D

7.7

Match Events

34'

Thauan Willians

40'

Emerson Santos

41'

Joao Cruz↳ K. Viveros

45+2'

Willian Bigode

61'

Guilherme Pato← Yago Santos

70'

João Cruz

70'

Gustavo

74'

Dudu Kogitzki← Joao Cruz

75'

Rafa Silva← Emerson Santos

83'

Patrick← Felipinho

83'

Luiz Fernando← Julimar

87'

Samuel← Julio Cesar

87'

Jhosefer← Willian Bigode

87'

David da Hora← Thauan

90'

K. Velasco← B. Zapelli

90'

Renan Peixoto← K. Viveros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmerica

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots9

4Corners4

5Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target2

9Off Target5

1Blocked2

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

353Total Passes393

309Accurate Passes337

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1