America Mineiro 2–2 Atletico Paranaense

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Danilo Avelar 90+6'

Wellington Paulista 76'

Christian 48'

Vitor Roque 9'

6/11/2023

Serie A · Round 10Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

America Mineiro42%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.00

America Mineiro

1.26

Atletico Paranaense

1.00

America Mineiro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 128 away

1.15

creates per match

0.87

1.14

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.15

Atletico Paranaense

0.87

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.14

Atletico Paranaense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

71%

America Mineiro or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

58%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

72%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

36%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.15 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.87 + America Mineiro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

America Mineiro scores more

42%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

29%

America Mineiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Bento

Atletico Paranaense · G

8.9

Match Events

9'

Vitor Roque↳ Fernando

44'

Marcinho

46'

Rodrigo Varanda← Felipe Azevedo

46'

Renato Marques← Everaldo

48'

Christian

52'

Aloísio

52'

Vitor Roque

58'

E. Martínez← Breno Cascardo

58'

Wellington Paulista← Aloísio

73'

JuninhoPenalty confirmed

75'

Agustín Canobbio

76'

Wellington Paulista

77'

Léo Cittadini← Alex Santana

82'

T. Cuello← A. Canobbio

83'

Rodriguinho← Lucas Kal

83'

Thiago Andrade← Vitor Roque

84'

Erick

88'

Willian← Christian

88'

Matheus Felipe← Hugo Moura

90+2'

Bento

90+6'

Danilo Avelar↳ E. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaAtletico

Overview

51%Possession49%

21Total Shots9

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.83

7Corners3

19Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots9

12On Target4

5Off Target5

4Blocked0

15Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

364Total Passes360

274Accurate Passes254

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

19Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense

America Mineiro and Atletico Paranaense drew 2-2 in Serie A on June 11, 2023.

Goals: Vitor Roque (9'), Christian (48'), Wellington Paulista (76'), Danilo Avelar (90+6').

America Mineiro controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense