America Mineiro 2–2 Atletico Paranaense

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Willian Bigode 90'

Marlon 53'

K. Viveros 67', 36'

7/27/2025

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro37%

×Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

America Mineiro

1.34

Atletico Paranaense

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

1.30

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.29

Atletico Paranaense

1.39

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.30

Atletico Paranaense

1.40

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

America Mineiro-0.12scores less

Atletico Paranaense+0.01on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

63%

America Mineiro or Atletico Paranaense

74%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

63%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.29 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.39 + America Mineiro defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

America Mineiro scores more

37%

level

26%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

37%

America Mineiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Viveros

Atletico Paranaense · F

8.7

Match Events

36'

K. Viveros↳ S. Mendoza

40'

Mariano

46'

Stenio← F. Labandeira

53'

Marlon↳ Miqueias

64'

Arthur Dias← Leo Derik

64'

Diogo Riquelme← Felipinho

67'

K. Viveros↳ B. Zapelli

70'

Dalbert← Marlon

70'

Willian Bigode← Heber

71'

C. Ortiz← Guilherme Pato

74'

Diogo Riquelme

78'

Figueiredo← Miguelito

80'

Isaac← B. Zapelli

85'

Lucão

86'

G. Benavidez← Kaua Moraes

90'

Willian Bigode

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaAtletico

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots9

4Corners2

13Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target5

6Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

452Total Passes395

351Accurate Passes313

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2