Atletico Nacional 3–2 Chico: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chico

9/30/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%

×Draw22%

Chico15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.77

Atletico Nacional

1.82

Chico

0.77

Atletico Nacional creates 136% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

0.76

0.77

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Chico

0.76

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Chico

1.87

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Chico-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

85%

Atletico Nacional or Chico

78%

Draw or Chico

38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

36%

Chico wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

54%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

27%

Chico 1+ goals

54%

Chico 2+ goals

18%

Chico 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

80%

Chico (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Chico away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Chico defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.82

Chico attack 0.76 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

62%

level

22%

Chico scores more

15%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff