Atlético Madrid II 1–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Las Rozas

Rodrigo Riquelme 72'

Álvaro Sánchez 21'

1/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Madrid II56%

×Draw25%

Las Rozas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.86

Atlético Madrid II

1.64

Las Rozas

0.86

Atlético Madrid II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

0.73

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

2.20

Las Rozas

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.73

Las Rozas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Las Rozas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

80%

Atlético Madrid II or Las Rozas

75%

Draw or Las Rozas

44%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

30%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

49%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

23%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

58%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

21%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

74%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.64

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

56%

level

25%

Las Rozas scores more

20%

Atlético Madrid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Álvaro Sánchez

62'

Gonzalo Expósito← Samu Pinto

72'

Rodrigo Riquelme

73'

Cedenilla← Raúl Díez

81'

Borja Garcés← Óscar Clemente

84'

Calleja← Jesús Cruz

85'

Mario Soriano← Rodrigo Riquelme

Atlético

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Fernández

81'▲Borja Garcés←▼Óscar Clemente

85'▲Mario Soriano←▼Rodrigo Riquelme

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

GarcésSorianoCondeMedranoJotaDortaTropi

Manager: Lolo Escobar

62'▲Gonzalo Expósito←▼Samu Pinto

73'▲Cedenilla←▼Raúl Díez

84'▲Calleja←▼Jesús Cruz

Las Rozas substitutes

ExpósitoCedenillaCallejaRiveraIñakiAndrésZekri

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas

Atlético Madrid II and Las Rozas drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 5, 2020.

Goals: Álvaro Sánchez (21'), Rodrigo Riquelme (72').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas