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Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
P. Álvarez 87' (pen)
9/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Atletico Grau36%
×Draw27%
Alianza Lima36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.22
Alianza Lima
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.46
Alianza Lima
1.07

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.37
Alianza Lima
0.98

finishing

Atletico Grau-0.46scores less
Alianza Lima-0.13scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
64%
Atletico Grau or Alianza Lima
73%
Draw or Alianza Lima
64%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
16%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
12%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
70%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
34%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
50%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.46 + Alianza Lima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.22

Alianza Lima attack 1.07 + Atletico Grau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
36%
level
27%
Alianza Lima scores more
36%

Atletico Grau at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
E. NoriegaAlianza LimaAlianza Lima · D
7.7

Match Events

17'
Nicolás Figueroa
25'
Ángelo Campos
25'
Catriel Cabellos
54'
Carlos Zambrano
65'
C. Neira← R. Lagos
65'
Pablo Sabbag← H. Barcos
71'
A. Vásquez← N. Figueroa
78'
J. D´Arrigo← C. Cabellos
78'
K. Quevedo← M. Huamán
78'
P. Guerrero← M. Succar
83'
Patricio ÁlvarezPenalty confirmed
84'
Renzo Garces
87'
P. ÁlvarezPenalty
89'
R. Rojas← P. de la Cruz
90+7'
Erick Noriega

Possession

47%Atletico

Shots

5Atletico

Pass accuracy

50%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoAlianza
Overview
47%Possession53%
5Total Shots15
3Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots15
3On Target4
2Off Target5
0Blocked6
4Inside Box9
1Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
373Total Passes409
275Accurate Passes305
74%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards5

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima

Atletico Grau beat Alianza Lima 1-0 in Primera División on September 18, 2024.

Goals: P. Álvarez (87' pen).

Alianza Lima controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.