Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Grau

J. Estrada 55'

A. Cantero 53'

N. Bandiera 13'

10/2/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Alianza Lima66%

×Draw20%

Atletico Grau14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.77

Alianza Lima

2.00

Atletico Grau

0.77

Alianza Lima creates 160% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.29

creates per match

0.84

0.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.29

Atletico Grau

0.84

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.71

Atletico Grau

1.71

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less

Atletico Grau+0.07on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

86%

Alianza Lima or Atletico Grau

80%

Draw or Atletico Grau

34%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

41%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

59%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

32%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

54%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

18%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

83%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Atletico Grau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Atletico Grau attack 0.84 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

66%

level

20%

Atletico Grau scores more

14%

Alianza Lima at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Estrada

Alianza Lima · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

N. Bandiera↳ P. de la Cruz

25'

Jose Bolivar

53'

A. Cantero↳ Paolo Guerrero

55'

J. Estrada

57'

J. Reyes← R. Guarderas

69'

R. Ruidiaz← T. Sandoval

69'

R. Vilca← J. Garro

76'

Pablo Ceppelini

76'

J. Castillo← P. Ceppelini

76'

H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero

78'

Herrera Joel← N. Bandiera

78'

A. Vasquez← P. de la Cruz

83'

J. Archimbaud← A. Cantero

83'

G. Gentile← K. Quevedo

88'

Raúl Ruidíaz

89'

S. Pena← F. Gaibor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAtletico

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots16

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.18

3Corners9

15Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots16

7On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked8

9Inside Box12

8Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

445Total Passes372

348Accurate Passes285

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Primera División: Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico Grau

Alianza Lima beat Atletico Grau 2-1 in Primera División on October 2, 2025.

Goals: N. Bandiera (13'), A. Cantero (53'), J. Estrada (55').

Alianza Lima controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.

Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico Grau