Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 11+ matches
Alianza Lima66%
Atletico Grau14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Lima creates 160% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Lima ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches
Atletico Grau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Atletico Grau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00
Atletico Grau attack 0.84 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Alianza Lima at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsAlianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport BoysAtletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Alianza Lima host Atletico Grau on Monday, 15 April 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima beat Atletico Grau 2-0 in Primera División on April 15, 2024.
Goals: K. Serna (52'), J. Ramos (90+1').
Atletico Grau controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.