Atletico Goianiense 1–0 America Mineiro

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Lele 90'

9/26/2025

Serie B · Round 28Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Atletico Goianiense48%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.87

Atletico Goianiense

1.36

America Mineiro

0.87

Atletico Goianiense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.61

creates per match

0.87

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.61

America Mineiro

0.87

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.87

America Mineiro

1.11

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.34scores less

America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

76%

Atletico Goianiense or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

23%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

16%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

58%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

22%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

67%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.61 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

48%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

24%

Atletico Goianiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Vitor

Atletico Goianiense · G

8.0

Match Events

33'

Kauã Diniz

34'

Federico Martínez

46'

Heron← Dudu Marques

46'

Jean Dias← Danielzinho

56'

Júlio César

67'

Rafa Silva← Stenio

67'

David da Hora← Arthur Sousa

70'

Maranhao← F. Martinez

70'

Kelvin← Robert Conceicao

73'

Miguelito

78'

Yago Santos← Miguelito

80'

Felipe Amaral

83'

Talisson← Yuri Alves

89'

Emerson Santos← Yago Souza

89'

Aloisio← Felipe Amaral

90+5'

LelêGoal confirmed

90'

Lele↳ Talisson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmerica

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots10

0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.56

5Corners6

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target4

7Off Target2

4Blocked4

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

414Total Passes273

335Accurate Passes199

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro

Atletico Goianiense beat America Mineiro 1-0 in Serie B on September 26, 2025.

Goals: Lele (90').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro