Atletico Goianiense 0–1 America Mineiro

Atletico Goianiense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

America Mineiro

Felipe Azevedo 33'

7/24/2022

Serie A · Round 19Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Atletico Goianiense43%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.99

Atletico Goianiense

1.29

America Mineiro

0.99

Atletico Goianiense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

1.01

creates per match

0.88

1.09

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.01

America Mineiro

0.88

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.09

America Mineiro

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

71%

Atletico Goianiense or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

57%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

20%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

14%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

63%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

26%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

60%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.01 + America Mineiro defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

America Mineiro attack 0.88 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

43%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

29%

Atletico Goianiense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Matheus Cavichioli

America Mineiro · G

8.5

Match Events

12'

Henrique AlmeidaGoal cancelled

33'

Felipe Azevedo↳ Éder Ferreira

46'

Peglow← Willian Maranhão

46'

Dudu← Hayner

46'

Jefferson← Arthur

46'

Kelvin← Airton

58'

Marlon Lopes

64'

Patric← Arthur

65'

Everaldo Junior← R. Cáceres

72'

D. Churín← Camutanga

72'

G. Conti← Luan Patrick

72'

Iago Maidana← Felipe Azevedo

80'

Carlos Alberto← Henrique Almeida

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmerica

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots10

6Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots10

6On Target3

10Off Target5

7Blocked2

12Inside Box5

11Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

554Total Passes318

461Accurate Passes216

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Serie A: Atletico Goianiense 0–1 America Mineiro

America Mineiro beat Atletico Goianiense 1-0 in Serie A on July 24, 2022.

Goals: Felipe Azevedo (33').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Atletico Goianiense 0–1 America Mineiro