America Mineiro 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

America Mineiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Henrique Almeida 45+8'

Dudu 17'

11/13/2022

Serie A · Round 38Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

America Mineiro44%

×Draw28%

Atletico Goianiense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.98

America Mineiro

1.32

Atletico Goianiense

0.98

America Mineiro creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 76 away

1.15

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.15

Atletico Goianiense

0.82

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.14

Atletico Goianiense

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

72%

America Mineiro or Atletico Goianiense

72%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

73%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

38%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.15 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.82 + America Mineiro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more

44%

level

28%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

28%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Benítez

America Mineiro · M

9.3

Match Events

17'

Dudu↳ D. Churín

35'

Alê

39'

Willian Maranhão

39'

Willian MaranhãoCard upgrade

40'

Everaldo

42'

Edson Fernando← Shaylon

45+8'

Henrique Almeida↳ M. Benítez

46'

Matheusinho← Felipe Azevedo

46'

Jorginho← Wellington Rato

56'

WandersonGoal cancelled

58'

Wellington Paulista← Henrique Almeida

58'

J. Ramírez← Alê

59'

Jorginho

62'

Juninho

70'

Danilo Avelar← Marlon

73'

Patric← R. Cáceres

77'

Airton← Luiz Fernando

82'

Kelvin← D. Churín

82'

Rhaldney← Dudu

85'

Edson Fernando

90+8'

Germán ContiGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaAtletico

Overview

60%Possession40%

36Total Shots4

17Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

36Total Shots4

9On Target3

14Off Target1

13Blocked0

19Inside Box2

17Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

422Total Passes318

347Accurate Passes235

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Serie A: America Mineiro 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 13, 2022.

Goals: Dudu (17'), Henrique Almeida (45+8').

America Mineiro controlled possession (60%) and registered 36 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: America Mineiro 1–1 Atletico Goianiense