America de Cali 2–2 Popayan: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Popayan

D. Herner 82'

F. Mercado 45' (pen)

W. España 86'

J. Figueroa 27'

3/8/2016

Primera B · Round 4Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America de Cali65%

×Draw21%

Popayan14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.74

America de Cali

1.93

Popayan

0.74

America de Cali creates 161% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 123 away

2.33

creates per match

0.82

0.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

America de Cali

2.33

Popayan

0.82

allows per match

America de Cali

0.67

Popayan

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

86%

America de Cali or Popayan

79%

Draw or Popayan

35%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

40%

Popayan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

85%

America de Cali 2+ goals

57%

America de Cali 3+ goals

30%

Popayan 1+ goals

52%

Popayan 2+ goals

17%

Popayan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

83%

Popayan (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.53 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 2.33 + Popayan defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.93

Popayan attack 0.82 + America de Cali defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

America de Cali scores more

65%

level

21%

Popayan scores more

14%

America de Cali at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

J. Figueroa

34'

S. Lucumí← J. Hinestroza

45'

F. MercadoPenalty

68'

C. Fory← S. Mosquera

77'

N. Morantes← Y. Cabrera

77'

J. Vargas← G. Murillo

82'

D. Herner

86'

W. España

90+4'

Y. Torres← S. Bermúdez

America

Popayan

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

34'▲S. Lucumí←▼J. Hinestroza

77'▲N. Morantes←▼Y. Cabrera

America de Cali substitutes

LucumíMorantes

68'▲C. Fory←▼S. Mosquera

77'▲J. Vargas←▼G. Murillo

90+4'▲Y. Torres←▼S. Bermúdez

Popayan substitutes

ForyVargasTorres