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Assyriska FF vs Sollentuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sollentuna
Sollentuna
6/22/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 14Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Assyriska FF40%
×Draw23%
Sollentuna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska FF
1.73
Sollentuna
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 112 away

creates per match

Assyriska FF
1.69
Sollentuna
1.57

allows per match

Assyriska FF
1.75
Sollentuna
1.76

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par
Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Sollentuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw
63%
Assyriska FF or Sollentuna
77%
Draw or Sollentuna
60%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+
21%
Sollentuna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals
82%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
52%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
25%
Sollentuna 1+ goals
81%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
49%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
52%
Sollentuna (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 1.69 + Sollentuna defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sollentuna attack 1.57 + Assyriska FF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Assyriska FF scores more
40%
level
23%
Sollentuna scores more
37%

Assyriska FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assyriska FF vs Sollentuna

Assyriska FF and Sollentuna drew 0-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.