Assyriska FF 2–0 Sollentuna: Result & Stats

Assyriska FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sollentuna

6/18/2025

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundSödertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Assyriska FF20%

×Draw22%

Sollentuna58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Assyriska FFExpected goals in this matchSollentuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.95

Assyriska FF

1.05

Sollentuna

1.95

Sollentuna creates 86% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.67

creates per match

3.22

0.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Assyriska FF

0.67

Sollentuna

3.22

allows per match

Assyriska FF

0.67

Sollentuna

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Sollentuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw

42%

Assyriska FF or Sollentuna

78%

Draw or Sollentuna

80%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

7%

Sollentuna wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

65%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

28%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

9%

Sollentuna 1+ goals

86%

Sollentuna 2+ goals

58%

Sollentuna 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

26%

Sollentuna (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 0.67 + Sollentuna defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sollentuna attack 3.22 + Assyriska FF defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Assyriska FF scores more

20%

level

22%

Sollentuna scores more

58%

Sollentuna at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sollentuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff