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AS Eupen vs RSC Anderlecht II — League #145 2026

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RSC Anderlecht II
RSC Anderlecht II
J. Gorenc 88'
J. Déom 48'
R. Ure 79'
E. Sternal 38'
2/22/2025League #145League #145 · Round 23Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AS Eupen33%
×Draw24%
RSC Anderlecht II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.36
RSC Anderlecht II
1.60

RSC Anderlecht II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.73
RSC Anderlecht II
2.33

allows per match

AS Eupen
0.87
RSC Anderlecht II
1.00

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
RSC Anderlecht II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

RSC Anderlecht II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
57%
AS Eupen or RSC Anderlecht II
76%
Draw or RSC Anderlecht II
67%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
14%
RSC Anderlecht II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
74%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
39%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
16%
RSC Anderlecht II 1+ goals
80%
RSC Anderlecht II 2+ goals
47%
RSC Anderlecht II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
43%
RSC Anderlecht II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

RSC Anderlecht II away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.73 + RSC Anderlecht II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

RSC Anderlecht II attack 2.33 + AS Eupen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Eupen scores more
33%
level
24%
RSC Anderlecht II scores more
43%

RSC Anderlecht II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RSC Anderlecht II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
J. GorencAS EupenAS Eupen · D
8.2

Match Events

38'
E. Sternal↳ N. De Cat
46'
M. Ashimeru← M. Robberechts
48'
J. Déom↳ B. Çalışkan
63'
P. Ejike← B. Çalışkan
63'
G. Sylla← I. Kanaté
63'
N. Engwanda← M. Kana
64'
A. Oguns← E. Gedikli
67'
Miloš Pantović
72'
G. Hendrickx← M. Pantović
72'
D. De Corte← E. Sternal
78'
Yentl Van Genechten
79'
R. Ure↳ G. Sylla
86'
R. Emond← A. Keita
86'
S. Pattynama← T. Alloh
88'
J. Gorenc
90+3'
Jerome Deom

Possession

42%AS

Shots

17AS

Pass accuracy

48%AS

Statistics

ASRSC
Overview
42%Possession58%
17Total Shots14
4Corners2
15Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots14
6On Target4
4Off Target4
7Blocked6
11Inside Box9
6Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
344Total Passes483
257Accurate Passes394
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls15
3Yellow Cards0
5Offsides0

League #145: AS Eupen 2–2 RSC Anderlecht II

AS Eupen and RSC Anderlecht II drew 2-2 in League #145 on February 22, 2025.

Goals: E. Sternal (38'), J. Déom (48'), R. Ure (79'), J. Gorenc (88').

RSC Anderlecht II controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.