RSC Anderlecht II 0–1 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

RSC Anderlecht II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS Eupen

M. Muller 23'

3/13/2026

League #145 · Round 30Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RSC Anderlecht II20%

×Draw25%

AS Eupen55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC Anderlecht IIExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.56

RSC Anderlecht II

0.82

AS Eupen

1.56

AS Eupen creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

0.33

creates per match

1.46

1.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

RSC Anderlecht II

0.33

AS Eupen

1.46

allows per match

RSC Anderlecht II

1.67

AS Eupen

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Anderlecht II+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Anderlecht II ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RSC Anderlecht II or draw

45%

RSC Anderlecht II or AS Eupen

75%

Draw or AS Eupen

80%

Winning margin

RSC Anderlecht II wins by 2+

6%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

RSC Anderlecht II 1+ goals

56%

RSC Anderlecht II 2+ goals

20%

RSC Anderlecht II 3+ goals

5%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

79%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

46%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

RSC Anderlecht II (draw refunded)

26%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Anderlecht II at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.33 + AS Eupen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.82

AS Eupen attack 1.46 + RSC Anderlecht II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RSC Anderlecht II scores more

20%

level

25%

AS Eupen scores more

55%

AS Eupen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Hiller

AS Eupen · G

8.9

Match Events

23'

M. Muller↳ B. Caliskan

46'

A. Flips← A. Tajaouart

48'

Elyess Dao

64'

B. Vroninks← Z. Keita

64'

J. Onia Seke← E. Dao

66'

Mark Müller

66'

N. Gavory← S. Kennedy

66'

I. Nuhu← N. Bitumazala

78'

S. Ntanda← O. Sarr

78'

J. Kana← P. N'Dao

80'

Z. Atteri← B. Caliskan

81'

Kikas

86'

D. Kasper← Kikas

86'

Y. Zague← Y. Van Genechten

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RSCAS

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots12

3.24Expected Goals (xG)1.81

3Corners5

9Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots12

7On Target5

9Off Target3

8Blocked4

10Inside Box12

14Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes346

377Accurate Passes282

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2