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Arminia Ludwigshafen vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
4/27/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 33Südweststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen49%
×Draw22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.99
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.51

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 43 away

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.83
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.79
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw
71%
Arminia Ludwigshafen or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
78%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
51%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
28%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
86%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
59%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
32%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
78%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
44%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
62%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.99

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
49%
level
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
29%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Arminia Ludwigshafen 0–0 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Arminia Ludwigshafen and Alemannia Waldalgesheim drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Südweststadion in Ludwigshafen am Rhein.