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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
5/19/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 11Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim46%
×Draw20%
Arminia Ludwigshafen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.33
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.00

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.17
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3.00

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.00
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.50

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
66%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen
80%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
54%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
27%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
90%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
67%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
41%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
86%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
59%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
57%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.17 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 3.00 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
46%
level
20%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
34%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1–0 Arminia Ludwigshafen

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Arminia Ludwigshafen 1-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.