Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1–1 Arminia Ludwigshafen

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arminia Ludwigshafen

9/30/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim45%

×Draw22%

Arminia Ludwigshafen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia WaldalgesheimExpected goals in this matchArminia Ludwigshafen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.57

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.87

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.57

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

1.58

creates per match

1.87

1.27

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.58

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.87

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.27

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw

67%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen

78%

Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen

55%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

25%

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

85%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

56%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

29%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

79%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

46%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

58%

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

45%

level

22%

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

33%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff