Arka Gdynia 2–1 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Piast Gliwice

K. Jakubczyk 8'

D. Kocyla 1'

E. Jirka 45' (pen)

10/25/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 13Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia41%

×Draw24%

Piast Gliwice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Arka Gdynia

1.56

Piast Gliwice

1.40

Arka Gdynia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.36

1.44

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Piast Gliwice

1.36

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Piast Gliwice

1.53

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Piast Gliwice-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

66%

Arka Gdynia or Piast Gliwice

76%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

59%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

20%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

79%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

46%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

21%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

75%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

41%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

55%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Piast Gliwice attack 1.36 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

41%

level

24%

Piast Gliwice scores more

34%

Arka Gdynia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

K. Jakubczyk

Arka Gdynia · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

D. Kocyla↳ M. Navarro

8'

Kike HermosoGoal confirmed

8'

K. Jakubczyk↳ K. Hermoso

28'

Jakub Lewicki

43'

Ema Twumasi

45'

E. JirkaPenalty

46'

T. Mokwa← J. Lewicki

58'

Sebastian Kerk

61'

M. Chrapek← Q. Boisgard

70'

A. Sidibe← N. Rusyn

72'

A. Dalmau← G. Barkovskiy

73'

J. Felix← L. Sanca

79'

D. Gojny← D. Kocyla

79'

S. Sobczak← E. D. Espiau Hernandez

79'

H. Vitalucci← S. Kerk

85'

O. Lesniak← G. Tomasiewicz

90+4'

Kamil Jakubczyk

90+4'

Patryk Dziczek

90+2'

Juande Rivas

90+2'

L. Perea← A. Nguiamba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArkaPiast

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots23

4Corners10

17Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots23

3On Target4

1Off Target12

2Blocked7

3Inside Box14

3Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

275Total Passes448

182Accurate Passes358

66%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0