Arka Gdynia vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Arka Gdynia41%
Piast Gliwice34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arka Gdynia creates 11% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arka Gdynia ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches
Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56
Piast Gliwice attack 1.36 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Arka Gdynia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Arka Gdynia substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona KielcePiast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon SzczecinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Arka Gdynia host Piast Gliwice on Sunday, 29 September 2019 at 10:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Arka Gdynia vs Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia and Piast Gliwice drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on September 29, 2019.
Arka Gdynia controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.