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Arka Gdynia vs Piast Gliwice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
CANC
12:00
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
7/6/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arka Gdynia55%
×Draw24%
Piast Gliwice21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.70
Piast Gliwice
0.95

Arka Gdynia creates 79% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
2.22
Piast Gliwice
0.83

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
1.06
Piast Gliwice
1.17

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
79%
Arka Gdynia or Piast Gliwice
76%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
45%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
30%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
82%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
51%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
24%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
61%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
25%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
72%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 2.22 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.70

Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
55%
level
24%
Piast Gliwice scores more
21%

Arka Gdynia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arka Gdynia vs Piast Gliwice — Match Preview

Arka Gdynia face Piast Gliwice on July 6, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arka Gdynia host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.