Anderlecht 2–2 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

OH Leuven

P. Tau 45'

Y. Verschaeren 38'

M. Maertens 84'

F. Duplus 53'

10/18/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 9Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Anderlecht49%

×Draw24%

OH Leuven27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.21

Anderlecht

1.69

OH Leuven

1.21

Anderlecht creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

1.64

creates per match

1.10

1.32

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

OH Leuven

1.10

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

OH Leuven

1.75

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

73%

Anderlecht or OH Leuven

76%

Draw or OH Leuven

51%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

26%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

82%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

50%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

24%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

70%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

34%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

64%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Anderlecht scores more

49%

level

24%

OH Leuven scores more

27%

Anderlecht at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Kristiyan Malinov

35'

Landry Dimata

38'

Y. Verschaeren↳ M. Murillo

45'

P. Tau↳ B. Mykhaylichenko

53'

F. Duplus

58'

Sascha Kotysch

64'

Musa Al-Taamari← P. Ngawa

73'

P. Žulj← L. Dimata

78'

D. Hubert← K. Malinov

84'

M. Maertens↳ T. Henry

86'

M. Bundu← Y. Verschaeren

90+7'

M. Vlap← P. Tau

90+5'

A. Allemeersch← X. Mercier

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AnderlechtOH

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots11

3Corners8

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots11

5On Target6

4Off Target5

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1