Altona 93 vs SV Drochtersen/assel — League #84 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Altona 9335%
SV Drochtersen/assel38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Altona 93 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Altona 93 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches
SV Drochtersen/assel away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Altona 93 attack 1.11 + SV Drochtersen/assel defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22
SV Drochtersen/assel attack 1.11 + Altona 93 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
SV Drochtersen/assel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "SV Drochtersen/assel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Altona 93 substitutes
SV Meppen
Kickers Emden
Phönix Lübeck
VfB OldenburgAltona 93SV Drochtersen/Assel
Weiche Flensburg
Hannover 96 II
Hamburger SV II
HSC Hannover
Bremer SV
SSV Jeddeloh
Eintracht Norderstedt
St. Pauli II
VfB Lübeck
BW Lohne
Werder Bremen II
SchöningenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Altona 93 host SV Drochtersen/assel on Saturday, 29 January 2022 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #84 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Altona 93 vs SV Drochtersen/assel
Altona 93 and SV Drochtersen/assel drew 0-0 in League #84 on January 29, 2022.
The match was played at Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn in Hamburg.