Alta 3–4 Asker: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Asker

C. Reginiussen 71'

F. Jacobsen 63', 12'

E. Kristiansen 74'

R. Fazi 55', 29'

E. Adukonis 49'

6/1/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alta53%

×Draw21%

Asker26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.42

Alta

2.08

Asker

1.42

Alta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

2.34

creates per match

1.29

1.55

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Alta or draw

74%

Alta or Asker

79%

Draw or Asker

47%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

31%

Asker wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

87%

Alta 2+ goals

61%

Alta 3+ goals

34%

Asker 1+ goals

76%

Asker 2+ goals

41%

Asker 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

67%

Asker (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

Asker attack 1.29 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alta scores more

53%

level

21%

Asker scores more

26%

Alta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

F. Jacobsen

29'

R. Fazi

45'

C. Reginiussen

46'

T. Suhr-Stamnes← M. Opgard

49'

55'

62'

63'

65'

E. Kristiansen← K. Getz

65'

M. Spiten-Nysaeter← E. Adukonis

71'

C. Reginiussen

74'

E. Kristiansen

79'

E. Fredriksen← R. Fazi

86'

Y. Smirnov← K. Holsbo

90'

E. Fredriksen

90'

N. H. Kvifte← K. Syvertsen

Alta

Asker

30

19

21

3

8

▼

Getz

10

⚽

▼

14

6

27

16

⚽2

▼

Fazi

77

▼

Syvertsen

29

Honka-Hal

14

⚽2

Jacobsen

22

▼

30

16

5

33

▼

Opgard

32

Andersen

25

▼

Holsbo

23

⚽

Reginiuss

18

Brekke

Manager: M. Duilo

46'▲T. Suhr-Stamnes←▼M. Opgard

62'▲G. Akesson←▼Z. Bello

86'▲Y. Smirnov←▼K. Holsbo

Alta substitutes

1Eltermanis34Arnason3Smirnov17Degerstrom20Suhr-Stamnes27Akesson36Ingilae45Eriksson

Manager: R. Bredal

65'▲E. Kristiansen←▼K. Getz

65'▲M. Spiten-Nysaeter←▼E. Adukonis

79'▲E. Fredriksen←▼R. Fazi

90'▲N. H. Kvifte←▼K. Syvertsen

Asker substitutes

24Duracak7Fredriksen15Kristiansen18Spiten-Nysaeter33Kvifte

Match Recap: Alta vs Asker

Asker beat Alta 4-3 in 2. Division - Group 2 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: F. Jacobsen (12', 63'), R. Fazi (29', 55'), E. Adukonis (49'), C. Reginiussen (71'), E. Kristiansen (74').

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.

Alta vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alta vs Asker