Alta 3–1 Asker: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Asker

C. Reginiussen 90+5'

M. Pedersen 77' (pen)

O. El Ghaouti 28'

D. Sereba 61'

10/24/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta38%

×Draw22%

Asker40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.83

Alta

1.78

Asker

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

2.33

creates per match

2.08

1.57

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Alta

2.33

Asker

2.08

allows per match

Alta

1.57

Asker

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Alta or draw

60%

Alta or Asker

78%

Draw or Asker

62%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

20%

Asker wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

83%

Alta 2+ goals

53%

Alta 3+ goals

26%

Asker 1+ goals

84%

Asker 2+ goals

54%

Asker 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

49%

Asker (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Asker away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.33 + Asker defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.78

Asker attack 2.08 + Alta defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alta scores more

38%

level

22%

Asker scores more

40%

Asker at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

O. El Ghaouti

61'

M. Abelsen← F. Jacobsen

61'

D. Sereba

62'

P. Brekke← M. Nikolaisen

66'

72'

72'

76'

77'

M. PedersenPenalty

82'

P. Heggelund← O. El Ghaouti

89'

90+4'

90+5'

90+5'

Alta

Asker

24

Pedersen

5

Jones

2

Isegran

3

▼

Vogt

17

Gulliksen

23

Hauso

9

▼

Aarstad

19

Okeke

25

⚽

Sereba

7

Mauritz-H

14

▼

40

4

3

19

16

12

⚽

Pedersen

9

▼

Nome

23

⚽

Reginiuss

14

▼

Jacobsen

8

▼

Nikolaise

11

⚽

▼

Ghaouti

Manager: V. Johnsen

61'▲M. Abelsen←▼F. Jacobsen

62'▲P. Brekke←▼M. Nikolaisen

82'▲P. Heggelund←▼O. El Ghaouti

90+5'▲T. Norbye←▼H. Nome

Alta substitutes

70Abelsen29Brekke27Heggelund30Norbye1Eltermanis22Hammari31Næss32Löseth24Winther

Manager: V. Skogheim

66'▲R. Fazi←▼F. Kastrati

72'▲L. Fuhre←▼T. Aarstad

72'▲B. Celina←▼P. Vogt

Asker substitutes

16Fazi8Fuhre18Celina38Groth1Thomas

2. Division - Group 1: Alta 3–1 Asker

Alta beat Asker 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 24, 2021.

Goals: O. El Ghaouti (28'), D. Sereba (61'), M. Pedersen (77' pen), C. Reginiussen (90+5').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.

Alta vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Alta 3–1 Asker