Almeria 3–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mirandes

José Carlos Lazo 72'

D. Núñez 49'

Juan Muñoz 46'

Maranhão 11'

12/7/2019

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almeria58%

×Draw22%

Mirandes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.09

Almeria

1.99

Mirandes

1.09

Almeria creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.54

creates per match

1.05

1.13

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Almeria

2.54

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Almeria

1.13

Mirandes

1.44

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Almeria+0.63scores more

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

80%

Almeria or Mirandes

78%

Draw or Mirandes

42%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

35%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

86%

Almeria 2+ goals

59%

Almeria 3+ goals

32%

Mirandes 1+ goals

66%

Mirandes 2+ goals

30%

Mirandes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

74%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 2.54 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.99

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Almeria defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Almeria scores more

58%

level

22%

Mirandes scores more

20%

Almeria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Núñez

Almeria · F

8.3

Match Events

11'

Maranhão↳ Álvaro Rey

20'

César de la Hoz

27'

Nikola Maraš

33'

Jonathan← José Corpas

33'

36'

45'

46'

49'

60'

Sergio Aguza← Juan Muñoz

60'

Matheus Barrozo← Iñigo Vicente

64'

Sergio Aguza

68'

Álvaro Peña

72'

José Carlos Lazo

73'

Romera← V. Vada

78'

Martín Merquelanz← Enric Franquesa

82'

Álvaro Rey

84'

Ivan Balliu

85'

Odei Onaindia Zabala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaMirandes

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots6

5Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target3

4Off Target1

2Blocked2

10Inside Box2

2Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

260Total Passes416

190Accurate Passes335

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

3Offsides5