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Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
3/10/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pasto27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Deportivo Pasto
0.96

Alianza Valledupar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 172 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
73%
Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Pasto
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
73%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
38%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
45%
level
28%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
27%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar beat Deportivo Pasto 3-1 in Primera A on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.