Alianza Valledupar 2–3 Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Deportivo Pasto

J. Molina 63'

C. Alzáte 22'

E. Mena 88', 20'

C. Ayala 14'

9/3/2021

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alianza Valledupar57%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Pasto21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.06

Alianza Valledupar

1.91

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Alianza Valledupar creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

2.00

Deportivo Pasto

1.18

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.95

Deportivo Pasto

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

79%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Pasto

78%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

43%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

33%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

85%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

57%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.18 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

57%

level

22%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

21%

Alianza Valledupar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

20'

22'

35'

44'

C. Hidalgo← H. Vergara

45'

46'

J. Pérez← E. Arango

46'

L. Angulo← J. Castillo

55'

A. Morales← E. Torres

60'

M. A. Sevillano L.

63'

J. Molina

70'

A. Soto← Y. Díaz

72'

73'

77'

A. Barbaro← K. Rendón

77'

J. Moreno← E. Duarte

86'

88'

E. Mena

Alianza

Deportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: H. Bodhert

46'▲J. Pérez←▼E. Arango

46'▲L. Angulo←▼J. Castillo

55'▲A. Morales←▼E. Torres

Alianza Valledupar substitutes

PérezAnguloMoralesMancillaMoraAguilarZea

Manager: F. Torres

44'▲C. Hidalgo←▼H. Vergara

70'▲A. Soto←▼Y. Díaz

77'▲A. Barbaro←▼K. Rendón

77'▲J. Moreno←▼E. Duarte

Deportivo Pasto substitutes

HidalgoSotoBarbaroMorenoMartínezValenzuelaRosales

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pasto beat Alianza Valledupar 3-2 in Copa Colombia on September 3, 2021.

Goals: C. Ayala (14'), E. Mena (20', 88'), C. Alzáte (22'), J. Molina (63').

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto — Copa Colombia 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto