Alianza Universidad 2–1 Alianza Lima

Alianza Universidad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Lima

Y. Mena 48'

J. Escobar 2'

E. Castillo 36'

10/5/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Universidad37%

×Draw29%

Alianza Lima33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.05

Alianza Universidad

1.13

Alianza Lima

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.20

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.20

Alianza Lima

1.03

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

Alianza Lima

1.05

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Universidad-0.20scores less

Alianza Lima-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

67%

Alianza Universidad or Alianza Lima

71%

Draw or Alianza Lima

63%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

15%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

68%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

31%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

11%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

65%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

28%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

53%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.20 + Alianza Lima defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alianza Lima attack 1.03 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

37%

level

29%

Alianza Lima scores more

33%

Alianza Universidad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Y. Mena

Alianza Universidad · F

8.0

Match Events

2'

J. Escobar↳ Y. Mena

15'

Hernán BarcosGoal cancelled

36'

38'

41'

43'

46'

G. Iraola← R. Campodonico

48'

51'

53'

56'

63'

65'

Paolo Guerrero← K. Quevedo

80'

P. Ceppelini← A. Cantero

80'

G. Gentile← S. Pena

83'

J. J. Canela Torres← J. Escobar

86'

J. Estrada← G. Enrique

89'

Alexi Edwin Gómez

90+8'

Benjamín Ampuero

90+8'

Paolo Guerrero

90+2'

A. Ampuero← P. Fuentes

90+2'

N. Ramirez← M. Lliuya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAlianza

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots15

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.69

0Corners5

18Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target3

4Off Target7

3Blocked5

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

271Total Passes420

222Accurate Passes361

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls7

7Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2