Alianza Lima 1–1 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Lima

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Universidad

K. Quevedo 8'

J. Hansen 43'

11/3/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Lima68%

×Draw20%

Alianza Universidad12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.71

Alianza Lima

2.04

Alianza Universidad

0.71

Alianza Lima creates 187% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

0.72

0.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.29

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.71

Alianza Universidad

1.78

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

88%

Alianza Lima or Alianza Universidad

80%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

32%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

43%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

87%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

60%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

33%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

51%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

16%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

85%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

68%

level

20%

Alianza Universidad scores more

12%

Alianza Lima at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Landauri

Alianza Universidad · M

7.5

Match Events

8'

K. Quevedo↳ F. Rodríguez

43'

J. Hansen↳ J. Landauri

58'

Aldair Salazar

60'

F. Rodríguez← K. Quevedo

60'

A. Balboa← D. Caro

65'

Giordano Mendoza

72'

Cristian Carbajal

76'

D. Encinas← J. Landauri

80'

J. Conde← J. Hansen

81'

Rinaldo Cruzado

81'

J. Manzaneda← R. Cruzado

84'

Federico Rodríguez

89'

K. López← L. Pajoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAlianza

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots10

3Corners5

24Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target3

3Off Target4

4Blocked3

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes391

306Accurate Passes303

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

24Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1