Alianza Lima 2–0 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Lima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Universidad

H. Barcos 79'

B. Soyer 29'

5/20/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Lima68%

×Draw20%

Alianza Universidad12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.71

Alianza Lima

2.04

Alianza Universidad

0.71

Alianza Lima creates 187% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

0.72

0.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.29

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.71

Alianza Universidad

1.78

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

88%

Alianza Lima or Alianza Universidad

80%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

32%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

43%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

87%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

60%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

33%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

51%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

16%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

85%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

68%

level

20%

Alianza Universidad scores more

12%

Alianza Lima at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Zambrano

Alianza Lima · D

7.7

Match Events

29'

B. Soyer↳ P. Ceppelini

58'

A. Aoki← E. O. Vasquez Ortega

66'

J. Castillo← J. Delgado

75'

B. Guevara← R. Campodonico

75'

G. Iraola← M. Lliuya

76'

J. D'Arrigo← B. Soyer

79'

H. Barcos↳ J. D'Arrigo

81'

E. Oliva← J. Escobar

82'

J. Sernaque← J. Mendieta

88'

M. Succar← H. Barcos

90+5'

Matías SuccarGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAlianza

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots10

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.76

2Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target5

1Blocked2

4Inside Box3

4Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

465Total Passes438

401Accurate Passes368

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

7Offsides2