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Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Preview
00:00
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
7/20/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Big match
67%
Alianza Lima
model favours
67%20%13%

Alianza Lima score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alianza Lima67%
×Draw20%
Sport Huancayo13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
2.02
Sport Huancayo
0.75

Alianza Lima creates 169% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
2.16
Sport Huancayo
0.84

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.66
Sport Huancayo
1.87

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
87%
Alianza Lima or Sport Huancayo
80%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
33%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
42%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
87%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
60%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
33%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
53%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
17%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
84%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.16 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sport Huancayo attack 0.84 + Alianza Lima defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
67%
level
20%
Sport Huancayo scores more
13%

Alianza Lima at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sport Huancayo score first in only 23% of matches
  • Sport Huancayo have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 85% of Sport Huancayo’s matches
  • Alianza Lima have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Alianza Lima sit 1, Sport Huancayo 17 in the table
  • 56% of Sport Huancayo’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Alianza Lima
Defensively solid
Sport Huancayo
Balanced
56%Possession49%
80%Pass accuracy80%
13.2Shots11.8
1.01xGBiggest gap1.67
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Alianza LimaSport Huancayo

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Alianza Lima
1
Draws
0
Sport Huancayo
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
2–12–10–02–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lima
LLLDD
Huancayo
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alianza Lima host Sport Huancayo

July 20, 2026: Alianza Lima take on Sport Huancayo in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alianza Lima host Sport Huancayo at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.