Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Alebrijes de Oaxaca45%
Potros Uaem28%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 36% more chances
Season form · 124 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 124 matches
Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Potros Uaem defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39
Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
TlaxcalaAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Potros Uaem on Sunday, 6 August 2017 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Liga de Expansión MX: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Potros Uaem
Alebrijes de Oaxaca beat Potros Uaem 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 6, 2017.
Goals: G. Madrigal (90').
The match was played at Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca).