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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
7/29/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca46%
×Draw27%
Potros Uaem28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.42
Potros Uaem
1.04

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 32 away

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.40
Potros Uaem
0.88

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.21
Potros Uaem
1.44

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw
72%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Potros Uaem
73%
Draw or Potros Uaem
54%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
22%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
76%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
41%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
17%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
65%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
28%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
62%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.40 + Potros Uaem defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Potros Uaem attack 0.88 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
46%
level
27%
Potros Uaem scores more
28%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Potros Uaem

Alebrijes de Oaxaca beat Potros Uaem 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca).