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Potros Uaem vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
8/30/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Potros Uaem51%
×Draw25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.56
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.97

Potros Uaem creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 126 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.30
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.82

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
76%
Potros Uaem or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
75%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
49%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
79%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
46%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
21%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
62%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
68%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.82 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.30 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Potros Uaem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
51%
level
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
24%

Potros Uaem at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potros Uaem vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Potros Uaem and Alebrijes de Oaxaca drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).