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Albacete vs FC Andorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Andorra
FC Andorra
9/11/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete52%
×Draw25%
FC Andorra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.58
FC Andorra
0.97

Albacete creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.74
FC Andorra
1.42

allows per match

Albacete
0.53
FC Andorra
1.42

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

FC Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
77%
Albacete or FC Andorra
75%
Draw or FC Andorra
48%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
27%
FC Andorra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
79%
Albacete 2+ goals
47%
Albacete 3+ goals
21%
FC Andorra 1+ goals
62%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
25%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
69%
FC Andorra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + FC Andorra defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Andorra attack 1.42 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Albacete scores more
52%
level
25%
FC Andorra scores more
23%

Albacete at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 1–0 FC Andorra

Albacete beat FC Andorra 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.