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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Baten — Pro League 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Baten
Al Baten
11/23/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 5Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC58%
×Draw23%
Al Baten20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.86
Al Baten
0.99

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.73
Al Baten
0.93

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.05
Al Baten
2.00

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
80%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Baten
77%
Draw or Al Baten
42%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
33%
Al Baten wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
84%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
55%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
28%
Al Baten 1+ goals
63%
Al Baten 2+ goals
26%
Al Baten 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
74%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 63 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.73 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Al Baten attack 0.93 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
58%
level
23%
Al Baten scores more
20%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Baten

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Baten drew 2-2 in Pro League on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.