Al Baten 2–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2/23/2021

Pro League · Round 20Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Baten32%

×Draw24%

Al-Qadisiyah FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Qadisiyah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.60

Al Baten

1.35

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.60

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

1.23

creates per match

1.63

1.58

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.63

allows per match

Al Baten

1.58

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

57%

Al Baten or Al-Qadisiyah FC

76%

Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC

68%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

14%

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

74%

Al Baten 2+ goals

39%

Al Baten 3+ goals

15%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

80%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

47%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

43%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.63 + Al Baten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Baten scores more

32%

level

24%

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

43%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff