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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
3 – 1
Al Baten
Al Baten
9/10/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 36Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC50%
×Draw25%
Al Baten24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.57
Al Baten
1.01

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.53
Al Baten
1.13

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.90
Al Baten
1.61

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
76%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Baten
75%
Draw or Al Baten
50%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
26%
Al Baten wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
46%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
21%
Al Baten 1+ goals
64%
Al Baten 2+ goals
27%
Al Baten 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
67%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.53 + Al Baten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al Baten attack 1.13 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Al Baten scores more
24%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Baten

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Baten 3-1 in Division 1 on September 10, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.