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Al Najaf vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2023

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
D. Mendy 3 90+13'
Younes Hmood 32'
5/19/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 34Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Najaf41%
×Draw28%
Al Kahrabaa31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.26
Al Kahrabaa
1.06

Al Najaf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.12
Al Kahrabaa
1.00

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.12
Al Kahrabaa
1.40

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
69%
Al Najaf or Al Kahrabaa
72%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
59%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
18%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
72%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
36%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
13%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
65%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
29%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
57%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.12 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.00 + Al Najaf defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Najaf scores more
41%
level
28%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
31%

Al Najaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Younes Hmood
90+13'
D. Mendy 3
Al
Al
Hasan Ahmad
Manager: Hasan Ahmad
Luay Salah
Manager: Luay Salah

Match Recap: Al Najaf vs Al Kahrabaa

Al Najaf beat Al Kahrabaa 2-0 in Iraqi League on May 19, 2025.

Goals: Younes Hmood (32'), D. Mendy 3 (90+13').

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.