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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
ABD
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
5/2/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al Kahrabaa45%
×Draw27%
Al Najaf28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.38
Al Najaf
1.01

Al Kahrabaa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Al Najaf
0.76

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Al Najaf
1.49

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
72%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Najaf
73%
Draw or Al Najaf
55%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
22%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
75%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
40%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
16%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
64%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
27%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
62%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 43 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.26 + Al Najaf defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Najaf attack 0.76 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
45%
level
27%
Al Najaf scores more
28%

Al Kahrabaa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Kahrabaa host Al Najaf

May 2, 2026: Al Kahrabaa take on Al Najaf in Iraqi League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.