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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2023

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
2/9/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Al Kahrabaa42%
×Draw28%
Al Najaf30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Al Najaf
1.03

Al Kahrabaa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.30
Al Najaf
0.86

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.21
Al Najaf
1.22

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
70%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Najaf
72%
Draw or Al Najaf
58%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
19%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
72%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
36%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
13%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
64%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
28%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
58%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.30 + Al Najaf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Najaf attack 0.86 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
42%
level
28%
Al Najaf scores more
30%

Al Kahrabaa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Al
Al
Luay Salah
Manager: Luay Salah
Hasan Ahmad
Manager: Hasan Ahmad

Match Recap: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Najaf

Al Kahrabaa and Al Najaf drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdād.