Al Minaa Basra 1–2 Naft Maysan: Result & Stats

Al Minaa Basra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Naft Maysan

11/21/2021

Iraqi League · Round 10Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra39%

×Draw28%

Naft Maysan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Minaa BasraExpected goals in this matchNaft Maysan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.11

Al Minaa Basra

1.23

Naft Maysan

1.11

Al Minaa Basra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 112 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.16

Naft Maysan

1.06

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.17

Naft Maysan

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Naft Maysan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw

67%

Al Minaa Basra or Naft Maysan

72%

Draw or Naft Maysan

61%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

17%

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

71%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

35%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

13%

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

67%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

30%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

54%

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more

39%

level

28%

Naft Maysan scores more

33%

Al Minaa Basra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff