Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Kahrabaa vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2020

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
6/21/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al Taji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Kahrabaa37%
×Draw30%
Al Najaf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.08
Al Najaf
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.17
Al Najaf
0.97

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.07
Al Najaf
1.00

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
67%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Najaf
70%
Draw or Al Najaf
63%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
15%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
66%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
29%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
64%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
27%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
52%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
37%
level
30%
Al Najaf scores more
33%

Al Kahrabaa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Al Najaf

Al Kahrabaa and Al Najaf drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on June 21, 2021.

The match was played at Al Taji Stadium in Al Taji.